Friday, February 01, 2019

Investing...Perspective on Investments

The Gemara in Pesachim 54: says that there are a number of things that are concealed from the human consciousness.

 ת"ר שבעה דברים מכוסים מבני אדם אלו הן יום המיתה ויום הנחמה ועומק הדין ואין אדם יודע מה בלבו של חבירו ואין אדם יודע במה משתכר ומלכות בית דוד מתי תחזור ומלכות חייבת מתי תכלה 

One of the things is ואין אדם יודע במה משתכר The Maharsh"a says that if a person knew what/where he would make his money then everybody would be rushing to that specific industry/investment and the prices would inflate. 

I believe that this Marshaa"a is explains a very interesting investment phenomenon. In most areas of life, individuals pursue interests based on individual goals. This allows ski resorts and beaches to operate without getting overwhelmed as personal taste rules with regard to vacation. In all life's goals the fact that all individuals have different goals and everybody pursues disparate goals allow for an even distribution of world resources. Shuls don't all get filled up neither do yoga studios etc. 

However when it comes to investing, everybody's goals are similar, to return as much money as possible based on the amount invested (obviously we have to take into account certain parameters such as risk profile, time horizon of invested capital and such) all investors with the same profile should be running to the same investments. Investors typically don't care exactly what kind of industry that they are investing into as long as it produces a healthy return. Employment is also similar, many people have a specific affinity to a certain type of employment. However, within a specific type of employment all potential employees have basically one goal... To make money and get paid well. 

Why then are there so many different investment philosophies within the same industry and so many people pursuing so many different employment opportunities within the same industry? . This stuff is not rocket science?

The answer is the Maharsha. אין אדם יודע במה משתכר is one of the phenomenons that God planted in the creation of mans consciousness. That he will not be able to see clearly how he will be making his money. What seems like a great investment to one industry professional looks like a terrible investment to another and vice versa. 

We all hear stories of start-ups that go to 200 venture capital meetings only to be told that their idea is horrible until one vc agrees to invest and they become the next billion dollar company. What did the last group see that the others didn't? Why didn't the company stop when many many smart industry professionals told them that what they are doing cannot make money? The reason is that there is a special דעת given to people regarding ואין אדם יודע במה משתכר. Its almost totally out of our hands. We use the דעת That we were given but it almost certainly not going to match another persons דעת. God set it up that way possibly so that there can be an even distribution of resources in the world.

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